This is something that really interest me. More and more, as the world economy gets worse you hear world leaders talking about creating a “new global financial system”. Thomas Jefferson once said: “When you reach the end of your rope, tie a knot in it and hang on.” As the global financial system pushes on a string, investors are desperately trying to hold tight.
The New World Order is upon us, full of hope, promise and a fair amount of fear. In a recent discussion regarding the direction of our country, The risks of catering to conventional wisdom and the implications for the U.S. dollar were noted.
In 2006, it seemed counterintuitive to forecast a “prolonged socioeconomic malaise entirely more depressing than a recession.” For years, the notion of an “invisible hand” was conspiracy theory until we learned that the Working Group on Financial Markets was a central policy tool.
And now, as we gaze across our historically significant horizon, we must open our minds to thoughts and ideas that may seem foreign to folks conditioned by the past and stunned by the present.
As governments take on more risk — as they price assets on behalf of the market and transfer debt from private to public — the common denominator, or release valve, becomes the currency.
If our economic condition is allowed to take medicine in the form of debt destruction, the greenback will appreciate, and asset classes as a whole will deflate. If we continue to inject drugs that mask symptoms rather than address the disease, the likelihood of a seismic readjustment increases in kind.
The deflationary forces in the marketplace are pervasive, and the “other side” of our current equation, hyperinflation, may be years away. Given the magnitude, breadth and pace of the global financial epidemic, however, we must explore each side of the twisted ride.
Years ago, the Federal Reserve wrote a “solution paper” regarding the need to combat zero-bound interest rates. The concern was the flight of capital from the U.S. and an option discussed was a two-tiered currency, one for U.S citizens and one for foreigners.
Canadian economist Herbert Grubel first introduced a potential manifestation of this concept in 1999. The North American Currency — called the “Amero” in select circles — would effectively comingle the Canadian dollar, U.S. dollar and Mexican peso.
On its face, while difficult to imagine, it makes intuitive sense. The ability to combine Canadian natural resources, American ingenuity and cheap Mexican labor would allow North America to compete better on a global stage.
If forward policy attempts to induce more debt rather than allowing savings and obligations to align, we must respect the potential for a system shock. We may need to let a two-tier currency gain traction if the dollar meaningfully debases from current levels.
You can read the procceding article in its entirety on Marketwatch.com
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